Has Ottawa’s Housing Market Reached Bottom?

Here’s What the Latest Data Suggests

Published: August 26, 2026
By: David Robertson, Broker/Team Leader, LIFE Real Estate Group
Reading Time: 5 min read
 

 

Just a month ago, headlines across Canada were focused on falling home prices.

Now, the latest Teranet–National Bank House Price Index tells a slightly different story.

After seven consecutive months of declining home prices, the national composite index stabilized in July, showing virtually no change after seasonal adjustments. Even more encouraging for Ottawa homeowners, Ottawa-Gatineau posted a modest 0.1% month-over-month increase.

Does this mean the housing market has reached bottom?

Not necessarily—but it does suggest that the pace of decline may be slowing, and Ottawa continues to demonstrate the resilience it has shown throughout much of this market correction.

A Different Story Than Last Month

Last month’s report focused on continued price declines across much of Canada.

This month’s report is different.

Rather than another broad decline, we’re seeing signs that the market may be finding its footing.

Nationally, the Teranet–National Bank Composite House Price Index remained essentially unchanged in July after seasonal adjustments, ending a seven-month streak of monthly declines.

While one month doesn’t establish a trend, it’s the first indication that the market may be transitioning from correction toward stabilization.

Ottawa Continues to Hold Up Well

Ottawa’s numbers remain among the strongest of Canada’s major housing markets.

According to the latest report:

• Ottawa home prices increased 0.1% month-over-month (seasonally adjusted).
• Prices are down just 1.6% compared to July 2025.
• Ottawa remains only 3.7% below its market peak reached in June 2022.

Compare that with several other Canadian cities:

• Toronto: 5.7% below last year and nearly 20% below its peak
• Hamilton: 4.1% below last year and over 20% below its peak
• Vancouver: 5.2% below last year

While many larger markets continue working through significant corrections, Ottawa has experienced a much more measured adjustment.

That’s consistent with what we’ve historically seen in our market.

Why Has Ottawa Been More Stable?

No market is completely insulated from higher interest rates or changing economic conditions.

However, Ottawa has several characteristics that have helped support home values:

• A large and stable public sector workforce
• Diverse employment opportunities
• Steady population growth
• Less speculative investment activity than some larger markets

These factors don’t eliminate market cycles, but they often help reduce the dramatic swings seen elsewhere.

Should Buyers Wait?

Many buyers have spent the past year wondering whether prices would continue to fall.

That’s a reasonable question.

But markets rarely announce the exact moment they’ve reached their lowest point.

If July marks the beginning of a more stable market, buyers who have been waiting for “just one more price drop” may find themselves competing in a healthier, more active market over the coming months.

Rather than trying to perfectly time the market, it’s often more important to focus on:

• finding the right home,
• ensuring the purchase fits your budget, and
• planning for long-term ownership.

What Sellers Should Know

Although the latest report is encouraging, today’s market still rewards preparation and realistic pricing.

Buyers remain selective.

Homes that are clean, well-maintained, professionally marketed, and priced appropriately continue to generate strong interest.

Overpricing, on the other hand, is still likely to result in longer selling times and price reductions.

Success in today’s market comes from understanding current buyer expectations—not relying on pricing strategies that worked several years ago.

One Month Doesn’t Make a Trend

It’s important not to read too much into a single report.

Housing markets rarely move in straight lines.

One month of stabilization doesn’t guarantee that prices will continue to rise, just as one month of decline doesn’t signal a market collapse.

What July does tell us is that the pace of correction appears to be slowing.

If that trend continues over the next several months, we’ll have stronger evidence that the market is transitioning into a more balanced phase.

The Bottom Line

The latest Teranet–National Bank House Price Index offers some encouraging news for Ottawa homeowners.

While many Canadian markets continue adjusting, Ottawa remains one of the country’s more stable housing markets. Prices have held up relatively well, the market appears to be finding its footing, and buyers and sellers alike have opportunities—provided they approach today’s market with realistic expectations and a solid strategy.

Whether you’re considering buying, selling, or simply curious about what these numbers mean for your neighbourhood, remember that real estate is local. National headlines provide useful context, but your home’s value depends on factors far closer to home.

If you’d like to understand how current market conditions affect your property or your plans to move, I’d be happy to help. Every neighbourhood tells a slightly different story, and having local insight can make all the difference.